{"id":673,"date":"2020-05-31T11:49:13","date_gmt":"2020-05-31T15:49:13","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.olivineresearch.com\/blog\/?page_id=673"},"modified":"2020-12-19T19:14:38","modified_gmt":"2020-12-20T00:14:38","slug":"hypothetical-portfolio","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/www.olivineresearch.com\/blog\/?page_id=673","title":{"rendered":"Hypothetical Portfolio"},"content":{"rendered":"\t\t
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First, this portfolio is purely hypothetical and for financial education purposes only. Olivine Research is not a registered investment advisor at this point, merely a publisher. <\/strong>Please refer to the disclaimer section of the site for some important terms and conditions. https:\/\/www.olivineresearch.com\/blog\/?page_id=41<\/a><\/p>\n

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If a recommendation to sell is made ( to avoid an after the fact situation), the opening price of the security on the next trading day will be specified or a specific target exit value will be specified with the “Sell Note”.<\/p>\n

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Expect re-balancing every three months.<\/p>\n

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Update on 12\/19\/2o<\/strong><\/h2>\n
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For the past 3 months, been providing the portfolio updates via the LinkedIn page. So playing catch up here with all the latest updates.<\/p>\n

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Current holdings are BMY, CSCO, KMI, MU, WDC, GOLD and GTHX.<\/p>\n

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Been selling into the November and December strength. Specifically, exited the following securities at or near the opening market, post a corresponding updated on LinkedIn.<\/p>\n

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ATRA \u2013 exited on 11\/19 \/20 at 21.74$. Return \u2013 128.84% from the purchase at 9.5$ on 6\/11\/20<\/p>\n

FTI \u2013 exited on 11\/19\/20 at 8.65$. Return \u2013 33.08% from the purchase at 6.5$ on 9\/23\/20<\/p>\n

JBL \u2013 exited on 12\/8\/20 at 40.7$. Return \u2013 23.33% from the purchase at 33$ on 9\/4\/20<\/p>\n

PFE \u2013 exited on 12\/9\/20 at 42.9$. Return \u2013 32% from the purchase at 32.5$ on 6\/24\/20<\/p>\n

CHWY \u2013 exited on 12\/17\/20 at 99.5$. Return \u2013 121.11% from the purchase at 45$ on 6\/3\/20<\/p>\n<\/div>\n

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Update on 9\/19\/20<\/strong><\/h2>\n

<\/strong>Here is the current performance of the hypothetical portfolio. The portfolio performance has improved over the last 2 weeks relative to the S&P 500 owing to contributions from Atara Biotherapeutics – ATRA ( positive read out of clinical data) and Micron – MU ( Street finally acknowledging positive risk\/reward skew underscored by Goldman upgrading the name.\u00a0<\/div>\n

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*Portfolio will be re-balanced if required on Sep 30. Letting the performance run through for two additional weeks to help align with calendar quarter starting Oct 1. This should make reporting cleaner.<\/p>\n

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Few more adds as entry targets have hit. Cisco(CSCO) at 40, Kinder Morgam (KMI) at 13 and Jabil Circuit (JBL) at 33.<\/b><\/h2>\n
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Update on 8\/29\/20<\/strong><\/h2>\n
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Portfolio Alpha has come down to 22.63% on a year to date basis. This is primarily due to the resurgence of the S&P 500 over the past few weeks. Micron and G1 Therapeutics have been under performing by a fairly significant margin. However, still holding on to these names because in our opinion most of the fundamental thesis is intact. Chewy up about 32.7% and nearing exit target of 65$.<\/span><\/p>\n

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Update on 8\/1\/20<\/strong><\/h2>\n

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Portfolio Alpha has come down to 32.53% on a year to date basis and 7.15% from 5\/27 when the portfolio was last re-balanced. GOLD, PFE and CHWY are performing well. ATRA has been hanging in there. GTHX however has been on a constant move down over the past month ( down about 38.23%, when the XBI (SPDR Biotech ETF) has been down -2.79% over the same period.<\/p>\n

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GTHX reports earnings on August 5th and with this kind of performance, my concern is if any stock issuance is forthcoming. From a technical standpoint, the stock looks broken and will be watching for the 13$ level. Though I don’t see any significant news in the public domain that would warrant this kind of a pull back on a fundamental basis, one also has to pay attention to the technicals. The fact that there does not seem to be any Directors buying at this level also seem to be a little concerning. At this point, GTHX is a hold and if it gets down to 13$ ( and if there are no material changes in the fundamentals ( based on the Aug 5th conference call, may consider dollar cost averaging down).<\/p>\n

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Update on 7\/17\/20<\/strong><\/h4>\n

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\n\n\n\n\n\n\n
\u00a0<\/td>\nYTD Performance
*Starting 2\/21\/20<\/td>\n		First 3 months Performance
\u00a02\/21\/20 to 5\/26\/20<\/td>\n		Second 3 months Performance
5\/27\/20 to current<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Hypothetical Portfolio<\/td>\n30.51%<\/td>\n35.29%<\/td>\n16.99%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
S&P 500<\/td>\n-3.39%<\/td>\n-10.37%<\/td>\n3.09%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n
Outperformance<\/td>\n33.89%<\/td>\n45.66%<\/td>\n13.90%<\/td>\n<\/tr>\n<\/tbody>\n<\/table>\n<\/figure>\n

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No changes to entry targets on Watchlist. The portfolio out performance relative to S&P 500 has compressed from 16.73% to 13.90% for the current quarter.<\/p>\n

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Update on 7\/04\/20<\/strong><\/h4>\n

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Chewy hit entry target of $45 on 6\/30 for half of intended position. CHWY is a trading add and not likely a long term investment position at this point. ( though, this could change).<\/p>\n

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Current Portfolio: <\/strong><\/p>\n

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GOLD, ATRA, GTHX, PFE and CHWY<\/strong><\/p>\n

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Update on 6\/27\/2020<\/strong><\/h4>\n

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Current Portfolio: GOLD, GTHX, PFE and ATRA<\/p>\n

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Updated Entry Price Targets:<\/strong><\/h3>\n

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